Here is a great (and fairly balanced) article on where this race will boil down to.
Basically the author believes that for Romney to win he needs to have more Republican voters turn out in Hamilton County Ohio than Democrats turn out in Cuyahoga County Ohio. Some very interesting numbers in the article.
Such as 916,000 registered voters in Cuyahoga County. Out of a population of 1,270,294; 22.3% of which are below the age of 18, 283,276 residents. 1,270,294 minus 283,276 equals 987,018, more simply, over 92% of the eligible folks in Cuyahoga County are registered to vote. Amazing number ain't it?
Given the same rate for the entire state (population 11,544,951; Sal-ute!), there would be 8,217,419 voters in the State of Ohio as of October 2012, there were about 7.7 million registered voters. Quite a difference; about half a million voters. State wide only 87% of eligible residents are registered to vote.
But in primarily Democratic Cleveland, 5% more.
Hell, Cuyahoga County is so corrupt even the press had to finally take notice. And these are just the guys they caught.
So; it looks like the entire election between Romney and Obama will be determined by whether or not Cuyahoga County is still as corrupt as it was in 2008/2010.
I am being to see why the Dems are so confident of a victory, no matter what the polls say.