Tuesday, March 4, 2014

The Ukraine

A topic I have been trying to avoid for the last two days has finally surfaced in an unavoidable way.

The Ukraine.

I have been trying to avoid the topic for several reasons; None of them good ones.

First; What the Hell do I know about the Ukraine? Of it's history, past and recent? Of its past; its people; its customs?

Nothing. Absolutely nothing but what I have herd on the radio the last few days and what a quick skim of Wikipedia could tell me.

So them the question is, what is the best future for the Ukraine and its people?

First off, I would be fairly sure that any future with armed foreign troops on their soil would not be the most optimal. If those troops are form the same country that had a boot on their neck for 70 years even less so.

The fall of the Soviet Union freed a lot of people; the Poles and the Ukrainians among them. The Georgians too.

But where are the Georgians now? Looks to me like they are (at least partially) back under Russian control.

But what is best for the Ukrainians? I know part of the reason the whole country has been in turmoil that last few months is because they have been pulled two ways; part of the county wants to return to an alliance with Mother Russia, while another portion (The Majority?) want a more Western alliance. This difference of opinion has lead to a months long Civil War and very recently a new government.

Next question is why do I care?

Two Words:

Pax Americanus

The American Peace. For 70 years it has been American military power that has stopped most conflicts in the world. The United Nations would cease to exist without our support, and it isn't the pronouncements of the nattering nabobs that work; it the knowledge that those words are backed up by American might  that give pause in the world.

Until recently. We now have not a President who speaks softly, and carries a big stick, but one who bellows constantly, and carries a stick he keeps whittling down, both in actual dimension, and in respect.

Twice in recent months he has drawn a 'line in the sand', and twice those lines have been crossed, and twice the consequences have been 'Line? what Line? I didn't draw any line".

And each time America's standing has taken a hit. We are no longer the county that is able to respond in a few weeks to an attack from abroad, like we did after 9-11. Without that fear of reprisal we are leaving ourselves open to a new attack.

Bluntly, I really don't care what happens to the Ukrainians. I don't mean that in a heartless way, but in a practical way. The situation will work itself out, one way or the other, and, to the best of my knowledge, we do not have any treaty or alliance with the Ukraine.

But we do with the Ukraine's neighbor, Poland. what if Russia swallows not only Crimea but all of the Ukraine? And then turns it greedy eyes toward another lost Soviet satellite, right next door?

Then what happens when the line is drawn and crossed?

Its not a situation I want to be in. Poland is a member of NATO; we do have mutual defense treaties with them.

Do you really want President Bluster in charge of NATO's response to Russian aggression in Poland?

And now you know why I avoided this topic as long as I could.

No comments: