Friday, July 3, 2009

Have We Seen the Last of Sarah Palin?

I just had to react to the news that not only is Sarah Palin not running for reelection as Governor of Alaska, but is also resigning as of July 25.

Obviously I don’t know the Governor personally, but based on the opinions of people who do, I can form an idea about what maybe a motivation and a reason.

As you know, Sarah Palin had such MASSIVE ‘support’ from the Republican establishment for her positions and strengths during last years campaign, and has seen the support of the Republican leadership for what amounts to Libertarian positions in the rank and file outside of Washington, that I believe she is not done with politics, but is done with the Republican Party.

It is a little over 3 years to the next Presidential election cycle. A long time in some respects, and a short time in others. Will it be enough time for her to establish the Libertarian party as a viable option for elective office?

Part of the problem with a third party option is political. There are just too many people who refuse to vote outside party lines. Usually. But right now things are not usual.

There is probably a significant portion of the Republican Party that would like to jump ship. Too many Republican candidates, like their last nominee, McCain, are not so much different than Democrats but just NOT Democrats. They don’t see government as the problem, like most of us do.

I also like to think there are a portion of the Democrats (Reagan Democrats) who would refuse to become a Republican, but MAY become a Libertarian, especially when Obama gets done with them.

The question is, does Sarah Palin have the charisma to launch the Libertarians into a viable national position?

She will certainly get the attention the parties positions need. And if Sarah Palin thinks the Democrat press was bad, I gar-run-damn-tee that the Republican talk radio machine would likewise be merciless. At least, at first.

The tale will be told by the 2010 elections. Will the libertarians be able to field viable candidates on a national scale for the House elections? Will they be able to get a percentage elected? What percentage? 2010, I think maybe 10-15% of the House. Say, 60 seats. Average of one and change per state.

Next would be having those folks PERFORM. Walk the small government walk, not just talk it. Present options for ending Social Security and Medicaid/Medicare and balancing the budget. Options to scale back the Federal involvement in the states. Options to get the Federal Government out of my life.

Will these bills be successful? Probably not. But between 2010 and 2012 the libertarians will be building a street cred, if you will, and showing that they are a viable option, and not a member of the miniscule also-rans.

How does all this tie into Sarah Palin’s announcement today? Everything I hear says she is a moral person. A dance with the one that brung ya sort of gal. I don’t believe she could, in good conscience, pull a Specter and switch parties while in office. Hence the resignation.

I could be wrong- Hell, I probably AM wrong.

I just hope I’m not.

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